Communication industry investment strategy in 2017: big traffic, new technology to boost communication growth

Investment points

Investment strategy: Mobile data and Internet business revenues have become the largest proportion of telecom business revenue, and the increase in data traffic business revenue will be verified by the logic of continued growth in the communications industry. We maintain a stronger view of the market for the entire communications sector. From the semi-annual report, we can find that the performance of the optical communication sector and the cloud computing sector is growing rapidly. We are still optimistic about the optical communication and cloud computing infrastructure sub-sectors under the dual stimulus of policy and market demand. 5G commercial is still far away, IoT construction begins to relay 4G. With the promotion of narrowband IoT applications, various vertical industries are undergoing digital transformation through the Internet of Things, and short-term terminal demand is large. Long-term view of IoT cloud platform companies will create more value. . The Beidou Management Regulations officially entered the legislative process, and the future civil market will wait for an outbreak of opportunities; attention will be paid to the investment opportunities of asset integration under the expected restructuring of state-owned enterprises in the communications industry. Suggested investment portfolio: Kehua Hengsheng (002335), Netsu Technology (300017), Gaoxing (300098), Yitong Century (300310), Shenglu Communication (002446), Haige Communication (002465), Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487) ), Xunxun Technology (002281).

The optical communication boom continues to be good. The government work report pointed out that the promotion of 50,000 administrative villages through fiber and "Broadband China" strategy; future bandwidth demand (high-definition / 4K video, VR and other applications) will only continue to grow, with the data center inside and outside The demand for connection further stimulated the procurement demand for optical fiber, optical components and system equipment. As can be seen from the first half of the year, the revenue of the fiber optic cable segment increased by 38.14% year-on-year, and the individual stocks rose by about 30% in the third quarter.

The Internet of Things helps digital industries transform across industries. The era of the Internet of Everything has arrived, and major operators and equipment manufacturers are in the process of promoting the development of IoT devices and applications. In the future, the diversity of objects and things connected to scenarios and business models, as well as the fragmentation of data collected by the Internet of Things, these issues put forward higher requirements for data processing and analysis capabilities. In the short-term, the demand for IoT terminal equipment will benefit from the growth of IoT construction. In the long run, the IoT cloud platform company will create more value.

Data center service providers are actively transforming to cloud service providers. Under the background of data traffic growth and industry deep application acceleration, it is expected that domestic IDC and traffic-related CDN industry will continue to maintain high growth, optimistic about the transformation of third-party data center service providers to cloud service providers.

Military and civilian integration focuses on satellite navigation communications. By 2020, Beidou navigation will contribute 60% to the domestic satellite navigation application market. The completion of the Beidou satellite navigation regulations will promote the widespread application of the Beidou navigation mass market. The level of satellite communication in China is relatively low. With the launch of Tiantong-1 satellite and the opening of frequency band resources, the future development of satellite communication is promising.

Pay attention to the integration of investment opportunities in internal business in the reform of state-owned enterprises. The communication industry is one of the key points of the reform of state-owned enterprises. In the future, with the expectation of the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises, the integration of internal business, the introduction of private capital and the implementation of employee stock ownership may be the main route for the reform of state-owned enterprises.

Risk warning: 1. Systemic risk; 2. The policy implementation brought by economic downturn is lower than expected; 3. Industry competition is intensified, profitability is less than expected; 4. Capacity demand pattern changes and operators reduce capital expenditure;

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