The launch of Tongfang Guoxin (002049)'s 80-million-dollar plan has triggered widespread market attention. From November 6th, Tongfang Guoxin’s plan was launched to 12th, and its share price also pulled out five daily limit, and its share price soared to 52.66 yuan/share.
It is worth noting that there is a 60 billion yuan increase in the construction of the chip factory in Tongfang Guoxin's plan. NAND is a leading product in the memory chip. Some brokers said that there is a worry about overcapacity in the industry. . At the same time, when Tongfang Guoxin can acquire the memory chip production technology is also one of the key steps in its implementation of the memory chip strategy.
NAND significantly expanded
Tongfang Guoxin prompt memory chip
Factory project risk:
Xu Xingjun further pointed out that in the future, the NAND industry is likely to reproduce the situation of overcapacity and price decline.
On November 6, Tongfang Guoxin announced the "non-public offering plan" (hereinafter referred to as "preplan"), showing that the total amount of funds raised by the company for non-public offering of A shares does not exceed 80 billion yuan, after deducting the issuance expenses It is used in the following projects: 60 billion yuan for storage chip factories; 3.79 billion yuan for the acquisition of 25% stake in Taiwan Licheng; 16.2 billion yuan for the acquisition of upstream and downstream companies in the chip industry chain.
A memory chip, also referred to as a memory, refers to a semiconductor device that stores information by means of electrical energy. The storage and reading process is embodied as electronic storage or release, and is widely used in memory, U disk, consumer electronics, smart terminals, solid state storage. In the field of hard disks and other fields, there is currently a trend to replace disks, and memory chips are one of the largest products in the global chip market.
At present, domestic semiconductor memory chips are in great demand, but the proportion of localization is small, mainly relying on foreign companies such as Samsung, Intel, and Toshiba. According to statistics, 80% of the chips consumed in China need to be imported, especially high-end chips are almost all imported.
The "preplan" shows that the memory chip can be divided into volatile memory (VolatileMemory) and non-volatile memory (Non-Volatile Memory) according to whether the data stored after power-off is lost, among which DRAM (dynamic random access memory) And NANDFlash (data storage type flash memory) are representative of these two types of memory. Despite the large variety of memory chips, DRAM and NANDFlash have become the main components of the memory chip industry in terms of output value. According to IDC statistics, the storage chip market in 2013 was close to $69 billion, while DRAM and NANDFlash accounted for about $60 billion, accounting for more than 85%.
DRAM is one of the most common storage components, and commonly used PC memory is a type of DRAM. DRAM has been developed to date and has become an indispensable component for PCs, smartphones, tablets and servers. Due to the increased demand for large capacity, high speed, small size and portability, the capacity of smartphones equipped with NANDFlash is growing rapidly, and SSDs (Solid State Drives) are also favored in PCs. Smartphones and SSDs have become the most important requirements for NANDFlash.
The "Preplan" shows that Tongfang Guoxin will invest in a new storage chip factory. After the plant is completed and fully completed, it is expected to add 120,000 pieces/month of memory chip production capacity. According to the company's calculations, the total planned investment of the project is about 93.827 billion yuan. Among them, the construction investment was 92.033 billion yuan, and the initial working capital was 1.794 billion yuan. The company plans to invest 60 billion yuan in this fundraising, and the rest will be solved by the company itself.
According to the calculation of Tongfang Guoxin, it is expected that the project will be fully completed after one year of production, that is, the production load will reach 100% in the fourth year after the project construction. The annual average non-tax operating income during the operation period of the project is 35.356 billion yuan, and the estimated annual average profit is 8.719 billion yuan. The post-tax financial internal rate of return is 17.65%, and the after-tax investment recovery period is 6.28 years (including the construction period of 2 years). ).
For the DRAM and NAND manufacturers' willingness to expand, the "Preparation" stated that the current mainstream process of DRAM is 20nm~30nm, and NAND is also entering the era of processes below 20nm. The R&D and construction investment required to further reduce the process is greatly increased. It takes billions of dollars, so on the whole, storage chip manufacturers are not strong in their willingness to expand and expand their production capacity.
For the prospects of DRAM and NAND, Xu Xingjun, an electronic component analyst of GF Securities (000776), pointed out in his research report that the DRAM industry has benefited from the frequent bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions and integration in the past. At present, the pattern of oligopoly has been formed, and the industry supply is relatively Controllable, under the stimulus of PC and smartphone demand, it is expected that the overall probability of DRAM overall supply and demand will remain balanced or supply a slight shortage in the future.
Xu Xingjun further pointed out that in the future, the NAND industry is likely to reproduce the situation of overcapacity and price decline. From the demand side, the demand for NANDFlash from smartphones has maintained rapid growth, but SSD has become the biggest uncertainty factor. At present, the price per SGB of SSD is still several times higher than that of ordinary disk (HDD), and its appeal in the consumer market is limited. At the same time, in the enterprise market and data center applications, there are still doubts about the stability and longevity of SSD. In the future, the storage demand of such markets will still be dominated by HDD. If the development of SSD is less than expected, the growth of demand in the entire NAND market will be greatly reduced.
It said that from the perspective of the supply side, due to the relative fragmentation of the NAND market, it is difficult for manufacturers to form effective self-discipline, and they have expanded their production in the past two years. For example, the Fab5 plant jointly established by Toshiba and SanDisk, and the Fab7 plant of Micron Singapore will increase their NANDFlash production capacity to 1.5 to 2 times. In the past two years, the wafer production of the entire NAND industry has been rising, coupled with the increase in the number of monolithic wafers due to advances in process technology, the overall NAND bit capacity has actually grown faster.
Xu Xingjun said that from the perspective of overall NAND supply and demand, it has been in a state of slight excess in recent years. With the substantial expansion of major manufacturers, overcapacity will further intensify, and the NAND industry will be optimistic in the future.
However, a brokerage official in Shanghai also told reporters that it is still impossible to judge whether there will be overcapacity in the future. After all, the market is changing, supply and demand are constantly changing, and now it is said that the industry will have production capacity in the future. The situation of excess is still too early.
2. In addition, there are not enough market demand for the project products, which makes the project sales insufficient, which makes the project benefits fail to meet the standards.
1. In the future, there may be a technical failure of the company to meet the requirements of the production process and technology of the memory chip, thereby affecting the project's production time and other factors, resulting in the project's efficiency can not meet the standard.
technical challenge
Huatai Securities (601688) speculated that Tongfang Guoxin's patented technology and manufacturing process related to NANDFlash through extension will become the key to the whole plan and will still be worth looking forward to.
In addition to the possibility of overcapacity in the future of NAND, the technical strength of Tongfang Guoxin's production of memory chips is also one of the key aspects of the project.
A brokerage analyst in Beijing told reporters that the core technology of memory chips is being mastered by international companies such as Micron and Samsung Electronics. There are no enterprises in China that can produce memory chips on a large scale. The memory chip is a national key development project, but the production technology is also the core. In the future, whether Tongfang Guoxin can obtain the production technology in this field is also an important factor for the success of the project. Because domestic enterprises are weak in this aspect, they must acquire these international enterprises. The difficulty is not small.
Previously, it was reported that the new controlling shareholder of Tongfang Guoxin, Ziguang Group, would acquire US storage giant Micron Technology.
Some media reported in July this year that the Ziguang Group, which is also controlled by the “Tsinghua Departmentâ€, has invested heavily in the acquisition of Micron Technology, and the price may reach US$23 billion. Later, in a media interview, the spokesperson of Micron denied receiving the offer and did not comment on the relevant information. The relevant person in charge of Tsinghua Unisplendour said in an interview with the media that some important information is subject to the announcement.
In September, a person close to the Ziguang Group revealed to the media that the Ziguang Group wanted to acquire the US chipmaker Micron Group. The other company is very active, but the US government is not active because the Micron Group involves some high-end in addition to chips. technology.
Huatai Securities speculated that Tongfang Guoxin's patented technology and manufacturing process related to NANDFlash through extension will become the key to the whole plan and will still be worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that this year, Ziguang Group's grandson, Ziguang, plans to invest US$3.775 billion to acquire Western Digital's new issue of 0.41 billion shares. After the completion of the subscription, Ziguang Group will jointly hold approximately 15% of the shares of Western Digital through Ziguang and become its largest shareholder. Subsequently, Western Digital announced that it will acquire all outstanding shares of NASDAQ-listed company Sandi (stock code: SNDK, hereinafter referred to as "SanDisk") for approximately US$19 billion.
Ziguang (000938) said that the acquisition will further strengthen Western Digital's storage industry chain, making Western Digital a global-scale storage with a wider range of products and technologies and more specialized in non-volatile storage. Solution provider.
To this end, the reporter called Ziguang, asking whether Western Digital and SanDisk have the technology to produce memory chips, and whether these technologies will be owned by the company. A securities department official told reporters that it is not clear about these issues.
Din Rail With Ups,New Design Din Rai ,35/15 Din Rai,Din Rai Switching Power
Wonke Electric CO.,Ltd. , https://www.wkdq-electric.com