Grid-connected problems, technical difficulties, and increased subsidy gaps have made the country more cautious in the approval of future wind power projects. The introduction of the New Deal will weaken the enthusiasm of blind investment in wind power in the short term. However, in the long run, the general direction of the state's support for the development of wind power has not changed.
So far, nearly half of the newly reported wind power projects in 2011 failed to pass.
Under the power of national policies, the investment in overheated wind power industry has obviously cooled down.
Since the previous 50 MW wind farm project was approved by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, it is not necessary to report to the National Energy Administration, resulting in the influx of wind power companies. These enterprises plan large-scale wind power projects into multiple phases of small wind power projects. In principle, each wind power project does not exceed 50,000 kilowatts, thus avoiding cumbersome approval procedures by the National Energy Administration. It also caused the data held by the National Energy Administration to be inconsistent with actual development data, and the overall support could not keep up with actual development.
At the same time, blindly launching also brought about a series of problems such as wind power grid connection and fan quality.
Wind power overspeed encountered difficulties in connection with the network In August 2011, the National Energy Administration issued a “Frequency Notice for the First Batch of Planned Wind Power Projects to be Approved in the First Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period†(hereinafter referred to as “special emergency notificationâ€) to the provinces. Arrange the country to approve wind power projects with a total of 28,830,000 kilowatts, and decompose the proposed indicators into provinces. Projects that are not included in the plan will not be approved, they will not be connected to the grid, and they will not enjoy additional subsidies for renewable energy prices.
Informed sources disclosed to reporters that before December 10, 2010, many provinces reported wind power projects to the Energy Bureau. As of August 2011, the National Energy Administration has not approved, and all wind power project companies are waiting for results during this period. Therefore, the contract with the wind turbine manufacturer has not been signed.
“In fact, the provinces reported more projects than those approved, and nearly half of them were cut down. They can only apply again in the next year. Take CNOOC as an example, the original plan was to build 400,000 kilowatts, but this year only approved Shandong Weihai 100,000-kilowatt wind power project, said the person.
He believes that only 38.83 million kilowatts will be approved for approval, and the investment rate of wind power will inevitably drop. However, restricting the rate of investment does not mean that the country will change its overall goal, but instead implements the policy of “tightening and loosening afterwards†when the existing conditions are not mature and the development of wind power exceeds the speed limit.
At the end of September, Shi Pengfei, deputy director of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, also said in a telephone interview with our correspondent that the overall development goals of wind power are unchanged, and the introduction of the New Deal will make the industry more orderly.
According to a report obtained by the reporter, the National Development and Reform Commission stated in its “Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy Resources†issued in September 2007 that the wind power planning target for 2010 is 5 million kilowatts. However, in 2009 alone, the newly added wind power installed capacity reached more than 13 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 25 million kilowatts.
The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy†announced in March 2008 stated that it is planned to double the 2010 target for wind power, which is 10 million kilowatts. The actual year reached 12 million kilowatts. The grid was developed in accordance with the previous plan, which led to the failure of grid construction to keep pace with the rapid development of wind power installations.
Shi Pengfei once said in public that during the period of 2006-2009, the cumulative growth rate of wind power installed capacity exceeded 100% every year, with an average of 113%. It is certain that the target of installing 30 million kilowatts by 2020 will be achieved 10 years in advance.
It is precisely because of the “speeding†development of wind power that wind power grid connection problems begin to appear.
According to an insider from the China Electric Power Research Institute, due to the adverse distribution of wind energy resources and electricity demand in China, in addition to the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, the planned wind power base in China has low local load levels, small grid planning, and long-distance transmission of wind power. The load center, the country has not yet formed a strong unified power grid, the exchange of the bottleneck of the Internet restricts the unified application of wind power.
Due to the intermittent and random nature of wind power, large-scale wind power interconnection has brought great challenges to the planning and operation of power systems. At present, the power grid has become an important bottleneck in the development of wind power. In wind farms that have already been operated, some wind farms have been restricted to access the grid due to restrictions imposed by the power load.
Competition intensifies the quality of fans. According to the reporter, in the past two years, many state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and joint ventures have launched wind projects. Although the expansion of production capacity of wind turbines has eased the situation in which supply of wind turbines in China has been in short supply in the past two years, it has also made the competition of wind turbine makers into the white-hot stage.
Informed sources disclosed to the correspondent that the sales price of wind turbines decreased from more than 6,000 yuan/KW in 2010 to the current 3,600-4,000 yuan/KW, but this price has also risen by several hundred compared with the beginning of the year, and the price was lower. The sharp drop in the price of wind turbines will inevitably come at the expense of quality.
Not only that. Some wind power manufacturing companies bid at low prices when the first batch of offshore wind power concession projects were tendered. Despite the successful bidder, the project has not yet started. The fundamental reason for this is that companies are bidding too low for the bid. There is no way to start it.
Shi Pengfei also publicly stated that in order to win the bid at a low price, the developer will push the budget estimates and risk factors to the lowest level in the plan, and it will be difficult to achieve within the next 20 years of operation. The bid price is not a reasonable investment price.
In fact, the industry understands that the successful companies cannot do so at such low prices, and the quality of products cannot be guaranteed. Taking the offshore wind turbine of an enterprise as an example, maintenance personnel have been living in the wind turbine for the past two years, and the maintenance rate is very high.
According to relevant sources, 200 sets of 750-kilowatt wind turbines put into production in Jiuquan from 2007 to 2008 have been operating in the next two years, and the maintenance costs will cost more than 3 million yuan. Maintenance costs will increase year after year, but it is not clear. How high will it be? It is also not clear whether the wind turbine can reach the design life of 20 years. Therefore, unstable wind power brings difficulties to smooth power supply, and intermittent power supply will shorten the life of the line.
On October 11th, Goldwind said in an e-mail to reporters that 750KW was a gearbox unit developed and put into operation by the company in previous years. At that time, the market did not require the fan to have low voltage ride-through capability, and the contract did not address the issue. In this project, therefore, the low-voltage ride-through modification of this part of the unit depends on the customer's market choice, which means that the relevant expenses need to be implemented according to the contractual agreement of both parties.
According to insiders of the China Electric Power Research Institute, there is a big gap between China's wind turbines and their overseas counterparts. At present, commercial wind turbines in China are based on technology introduction and digestion and absorption. The mass production has been realized, and the ability for independent innovation has been low. The core components of the wind turbine, such as converters and main bearings, are almost all dependent on imports. Since the core technology of the converter is not mastered, the wind turbines currently commercialized and connected to the grid are basically not It has the control ability to support the safe and stable operation of the power system.
When Wu Gang, chairman of Goldwind Technology, spoke at a meeting about the future development direction of China's wind turbine enterprises, he said that China's wind turbine enterprises are large but not strong, and although the degree of dependence on core technology is somewhat reduced, the degree of dependence remains high.
The decline in the profits of the wind turbine manufacturing enterprises and the drop in gross profit have also emerged.
Take Goldwind as an example. In the first half of 2011, its operating income was 5.194 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.61% from the same period of the previous year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 425 million yuan, a decrease of 45.05% from the same period last year.
The report also showed that in terms of sales volume, Goldwind achieved 821 units of fan sales in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 13.12%. In terms of prices, the average sales price of the company's wind turbines in the first half of the year was 3,758 yuan/kW, which was a decrease of 10.98% from the average price of last year. The reduction in sales volume and price of wind turbines resulted in a significant decrease of 22.87% year-on-year in the company's wind turbine business revenue and a decrease in total operating revenue of 17.61%.
In addition, the decline in capacity utilization and sales prices, and the increase in raw material costs such as rare earths contributed to the decline in gross profit margin. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of the company's wind turbine business fell by 5.98 percentage points to 17.82%, and the overall gross profit margin decreased to 21.14%.
However, for the third quarter results, the responsible person of Goldwind refused to answer, but they said that from the recent bidding, the price of wind turbine equipment has bottomed out.
Dawen Securities analyst Cai Wenbin pointed out in an analysis report that, after years of sustained high growth, quality problems in the domestic wind power equipment industry began to appear frequently. In the first half of the year, a number of fan off-grid accidents occurred continuously. The state has reclaimed the authority to examine and approve local wind power projects, and has conducted strict on-grid approvals for the wind power industry and strengthened the management of grid-connected technologies. Therefore, the combined effect of multiple factors led to a fall in the demand for wind turbines in the first half of the year. At the same time, with the continuous release of production capacity of wind power industry, the competition in the industry is further aggravated, and low-price competition causes the price of wind power equipment to drop sharply.
In addition, the reporter also noticed that the first-half net profit of Sinovel fell by more than 48% year-on-year, and the net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 457.29% compared with the same period of last year.
According to the Hunan Electric's mid-year report, the company’s operating income for the first half of the year was RMB 3.527 billion, up 9% year-on-year, and its operating income increased significantly. The operating profit was RMB 129 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%.
Wang Boyao, an analyst at China Post Securities, believes that the wind power business has dragged down the company's overall performance, and wind power products have contributed the most to the company's revenue and profits. In the report period, affected by the overall sluggishness of the industry and the sharp rise in raw material costs, the gross profit margin was higher than the same period of last year. It fell sharply by 6.1% to only 8.03%.
The demand for wind power equipment will slow down in the future, and the market capacity will be limited. Although the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 150 million kilowatts by 2020, an average of 12 million kilowatts will be added each year. However, currently, the production capacity of the entire wind turbine manufacturing industry is only the production of Goldwind, Huarui, and Dongqi that exceeded 10 million kilowatts in 2010. The other 60 companies will compete for another 2 million kilowatts, which is arguably quite competitive. fierce.
At present, the investment in grid-connected wind power industry is mainly divided into two parts: investment in wind farms and investment in wind turbine generators, of which wind turbines account for about 70% of wind farm investment. Wind turbine manufacturers invest mainly in research and development of products and increase production capacity. It is estimated that an annual capacity of 1 million kilowatts will require investment of 2 billion yuan. For investors, the investment in building wind farms is very large.
So far, nearly half of the newly reported wind power projects in 2011 failed to pass.
Under the power of national policies, the investment in overheated wind power industry has obviously cooled down.
Since the previous 50 MW wind farm project was approved by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, it is not necessary to report to the National Energy Administration, resulting in the influx of wind power companies. These enterprises plan large-scale wind power projects into multiple phases of small wind power projects. In principle, each wind power project does not exceed 50,000 kilowatts, thus avoiding cumbersome approval procedures by the National Energy Administration. It also caused the data held by the National Energy Administration to be inconsistent with actual development data, and the overall support could not keep up with actual development.
At the same time, blindly launching also brought about a series of problems such as wind power grid connection and fan quality.
Wind power overspeed encountered difficulties in connection with the network In August 2011, the National Energy Administration issued a “Frequency Notice for the First Batch of Planned Wind Power Projects to be Approved in the First Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period†(hereinafter referred to as “special emergency notificationâ€) to the provinces. Arrange the country to approve wind power projects with a total of 28,830,000 kilowatts, and decompose the proposed indicators into provinces. Projects that are not included in the plan will not be approved, they will not be connected to the grid, and they will not enjoy additional subsidies for renewable energy prices.
Informed sources disclosed to reporters that before December 10, 2010, many provinces reported wind power projects to the Energy Bureau. As of August 2011, the National Energy Administration has not approved, and all wind power project companies are waiting for results during this period. Therefore, the contract with the wind turbine manufacturer has not been signed.
“In fact, the provinces reported more projects than those approved, and nearly half of them were cut down. They can only apply again in the next year. Take CNOOC as an example, the original plan was to build 400,000 kilowatts, but this year only approved Shandong Weihai 100,000-kilowatt wind power project, said the person.
He believes that only 38.83 million kilowatts will be approved for approval, and the investment rate of wind power will inevitably drop. However, restricting the rate of investment does not mean that the country will change its overall goal, but instead implements the policy of “tightening and loosening afterwards†when the existing conditions are not mature and the development of wind power exceeds the speed limit.
At the end of September, Shi Pengfei, deputy director of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, also said in a telephone interview with our correspondent that the overall development goals of wind power are unchanged, and the introduction of the New Deal will make the industry more orderly.
According to a report obtained by the reporter, the National Development and Reform Commission stated in its “Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy Resources†issued in September 2007 that the wind power planning target for 2010 is 5 million kilowatts. However, in 2009 alone, the newly added wind power installed capacity reached more than 13 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 25 million kilowatts.
The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy†announced in March 2008 stated that it is planned to double the 2010 target for wind power, which is 10 million kilowatts. The actual year reached 12 million kilowatts. The grid was developed in accordance with the previous plan, which led to the failure of grid construction to keep pace with the rapid development of wind power installations.
Shi Pengfei once said in public that during the period of 2006-2009, the cumulative growth rate of wind power installed capacity exceeded 100% every year, with an average of 113%. It is certain that the target of installing 30 million kilowatts by 2020 will be achieved 10 years in advance.
It is precisely because of the “speeding†development of wind power that wind power grid connection problems begin to appear.
According to an insider from the China Electric Power Research Institute, due to the adverse distribution of wind energy resources and electricity demand in China, in addition to the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, the planned wind power base in China has low local load levels, small grid planning, and long-distance transmission of wind power. The load center, the country has not yet formed a strong unified power grid, the exchange of the bottleneck of the Internet restricts the unified application of wind power.
Due to the intermittent and random nature of wind power, large-scale wind power interconnection has brought great challenges to the planning and operation of power systems. At present, the power grid has become an important bottleneck in the development of wind power. In wind farms that have already been operated, some wind farms have been restricted to access the grid due to restrictions imposed by the power load.
Competition intensifies the quality of fans. According to the reporter, in the past two years, many state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and joint ventures have launched wind projects. Although the expansion of production capacity of wind turbines has eased the situation in which supply of wind turbines in China has been in short supply in the past two years, it has also made the competition of wind turbine makers into the white-hot stage.
Informed sources disclosed to the correspondent that the sales price of wind turbines decreased from more than 6,000 yuan/KW in 2010 to the current 3,600-4,000 yuan/KW, but this price has also risen by several hundred compared with the beginning of the year, and the price was lower. The sharp drop in the price of wind turbines will inevitably come at the expense of quality.
Not only that. Some wind power manufacturing companies bid at low prices when the first batch of offshore wind power concession projects were tendered. Despite the successful bidder, the project has not yet started. The fundamental reason for this is that companies are bidding too low for the bid. There is no way to start it.
Shi Pengfei also publicly stated that in order to win the bid at a low price, the developer will push the budget estimates and risk factors to the lowest level in the plan, and it will be difficult to achieve within the next 20 years of operation. The bid price is not a reasonable investment price.
In fact, the industry understands that the successful companies cannot do so at such low prices, and the quality of products cannot be guaranteed. Taking the offshore wind turbine of an enterprise as an example, maintenance personnel have been living in the wind turbine for the past two years, and the maintenance rate is very high.
According to relevant sources, 200 sets of 750-kilowatt wind turbines put into production in Jiuquan from 2007 to 2008 have been operating in the next two years, and the maintenance costs will cost more than 3 million yuan. Maintenance costs will increase year after year, but it is not clear. How high will it be? It is also not clear whether the wind turbine can reach the design life of 20 years. Therefore, unstable wind power brings difficulties to smooth power supply, and intermittent power supply will shorten the life of the line.
On October 11th, Goldwind said in an e-mail to reporters that 750KW was a gearbox unit developed and put into operation by the company in previous years. At that time, the market did not require the fan to have low voltage ride-through capability, and the contract did not address the issue. In this project, therefore, the low-voltage ride-through modification of this part of the unit depends on the customer's market choice, which means that the relevant expenses need to be implemented according to the contractual agreement of both parties.
According to insiders of the China Electric Power Research Institute, there is a big gap between China's wind turbines and their overseas counterparts. At present, commercial wind turbines in China are based on technology introduction and digestion and absorption. The mass production has been realized, and the ability for independent innovation has been low. The core components of the wind turbine, such as converters and main bearings, are almost all dependent on imports. Since the core technology of the converter is not mastered, the wind turbines currently commercialized and connected to the grid are basically not It has the control ability to support the safe and stable operation of the power system.
When Wu Gang, chairman of Goldwind Technology, spoke at a meeting about the future development direction of China's wind turbine enterprises, he said that China's wind turbine enterprises are large but not strong, and although the degree of dependence on core technology is somewhat reduced, the degree of dependence remains high.
The decline in the profits of the wind turbine manufacturing enterprises and the drop in gross profit have also emerged.
Take Goldwind as an example. In the first half of 2011, its operating income was 5.194 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.61% from the same period of the previous year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 425 million yuan, a decrease of 45.05% from the same period last year.
The report also showed that in terms of sales volume, Goldwind achieved 821 units of fan sales in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 13.12%. In terms of prices, the average sales price of the company's wind turbines in the first half of the year was 3,758 yuan/kW, which was a decrease of 10.98% from the average price of last year. The reduction in sales volume and price of wind turbines resulted in a significant decrease of 22.87% year-on-year in the company's wind turbine business revenue and a decrease in total operating revenue of 17.61%.
In addition, the decline in capacity utilization and sales prices, and the increase in raw material costs such as rare earths contributed to the decline in gross profit margin. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of the company's wind turbine business fell by 5.98 percentage points to 17.82%, and the overall gross profit margin decreased to 21.14%.
However, for the third quarter results, the responsible person of Goldwind refused to answer, but they said that from the recent bidding, the price of wind turbine equipment has bottomed out.
Dawen Securities analyst Cai Wenbin pointed out in an analysis report that, after years of sustained high growth, quality problems in the domestic wind power equipment industry began to appear frequently. In the first half of the year, a number of fan off-grid accidents occurred continuously. The state has reclaimed the authority to examine and approve local wind power projects, and has conducted strict on-grid approvals for the wind power industry and strengthened the management of grid-connected technologies. Therefore, the combined effect of multiple factors led to a fall in the demand for wind turbines in the first half of the year. At the same time, with the continuous release of production capacity of wind power industry, the competition in the industry is further aggravated, and low-price competition causes the price of wind power equipment to drop sharply.
In addition, the reporter also noticed that the first-half net profit of Sinovel fell by more than 48% year-on-year, and the net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 457.29% compared with the same period of last year.
According to the Hunan Electric's mid-year report, the company’s operating income for the first half of the year was RMB 3.527 billion, up 9% year-on-year, and its operating income increased significantly. The operating profit was RMB 129 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%.
Wang Boyao, an analyst at China Post Securities, believes that the wind power business has dragged down the company's overall performance, and wind power products have contributed the most to the company's revenue and profits. In the report period, affected by the overall sluggishness of the industry and the sharp rise in raw material costs, the gross profit margin was higher than the same period of last year. It fell sharply by 6.1% to only 8.03%.
The demand for wind power equipment will slow down in the future, and the market capacity will be limited. Although the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 150 million kilowatts by 2020, an average of 12 million kilowatts will be added each year. However, currently, the production capacity of the entire wind turbine manufacturing industry is only the production of Goldwind, Huarui, and Dongqi that exceeded 10 million kilowatts in 2010. The other 60 companies will compete for another 2 million kilowatts, which is arguably quite competitive. fierce.
At present, the investment in grid-connected wind power industry is mainly divided into two parts: investment in wind farms and investment in wind turbine generators, of which wind turbines account for about 70% of wind farm investment. Wind turbine manufacturers invest mainly in research and development of products and increase production capacity. It is estimated that an annual capacity of 1 million kilowatts will require investment of 2 billion yuan. For investors, the investment in building wind farms is very large.
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