In October 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued special documents to suppress the overcapacity and redundant construction conditions in the six industries of steel, cement, coal chemical industry, wind turbine equipment, polysilicon, and flat glass, and pointed out electrolytic aluminum, soybean crush, Shipbuilding and other industries also have signs of excess capacity.
The macro overcapacity will be reviewed three years later. What are the status of these nine industries? After a multi-day investigation and interview, the reporter found that from 2009 to 2012, the irrational expansion of production capacity in these nine industries did not shrink due to policy restrictions, and some industries were extremely aggressive in their expansion. Therefore, the survival status of the nine major industries is not satisfactory. Among them, the entire steel and electrolytic aluminum industry suffers losses; the production capacity of cement, flat glass, and wind power equipment is severely oversupplied; small and medium-sized polysilicon companies have ceased production, and shipbuilding companies have “winteredâ€.
Under the policy restrictions, what are the driving forces for overcapacity in these industries, reflecting the structural contradictions? The newspaper today launched the second survey series on “overcapacity in the nine industries†to interpret the current status of the polysilicon and fan equipment industry.
At the end of last year, the four largest polysilicon companies in China, including Luoyang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng, Sichuan Daquan, and LDK, noted that although polysilicon prices at home and abroad are declining, the import prices of polysilicon products from South Korea and the United States have been low. Quotes from Chinese counterparts.
“In this case, several of our big companies have to think of ways to go so that all Chinese companies will close down.†Mr. Yu’s internal management of the above-mentioned polysilicon company disclosed to the “First Financial Daily†reporter that there were four After negotiating and collecting materials, the company submitted to the Ministry of Commerce in the first half of this year and hoped that the government could conduct anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against these overseas companies.
Polysilicon production capacity at home and abroad has been surplus, and now imported ultra-low-cost polysilicon products have hit the domestic market. It is estimated that about 80% of domestic polysilicon companies have stopped production.
Serious excess
According to data from the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, the global polysilicon production in 2011 was 240,000 tons. According to relevant data, China's polysilicon production was about 83,000 tons, and China's imports of solar-grade polysilicon were about 63,000 tons, which together add up to an estimated 146,000 tons of total supply. However, the total world demand was only 140,000 tons, and the number of polysilicon from Chinese local manufacturers and overseas importers has exceeded the total demand of the world.
Polysilicon is an important raw material for the manufacture of crystalline silicon solar cells, and it is also a very intensive part of technology and investment. As far back as 2007, the global polysilicon production was dominated by large companies such as Germany, the United States, and South Korea, because at the time several major companies in the world were reluctant to transfer the technology to improve Siemens.
At the same time, the European photovoltaic industry, dominated by Germany, has received strong support from the government, which has led to a surge in battery demand. This has also caused the supply of polysilicon products to fall short of demand. Many large Chinese companies have also been involved.
At that time, after setting aside billions or even billions of dollars in funds to establish production facilities and introduce high-tech talent, individual companies including Jiangsu Zhongneng and Daquan polysilicon quickly entered the industry, and China's polysilicon production has also been greatly improved.
According to the data obtained by a reporter from a photovoltaic company, in 2008, the total domestic polysilicon output was only about 4,600 tons, but the output from 2009 to 2011 increased to 20,000 tons, 45,000 tons and 82,000 tons, 2012. The output of the first four months reached 24,300 tons.
At the same time, a large number of overseas low-cost polysilicon hit the domestic market.
In 2008, the imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea were 5,371 tons and 1,932 tons respectively. However, by 2011, the imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea respectively exceeded 17,000 tons and 21,000 tons, of which Korea’s market share in China rose from about 10%. To 15%. After accumulating data in recent years, the reporter found that China (polysilicon production) accounted for 52% of domestic demand, and Korea and the United States accounted for 13% and 16% of imports, respectively. Visible, South Korea's polysilicon has reached nearly 30% of the domestic market demand.
Feng Dezhi, general manager of Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon, also admitted that foreign imports of polysilicon had a great impact on Chinese companies. “Low-cost dumping of European and American companies, local trade barriers, and unreasonable trade protection are all harmful to Chinese companies. From January to May this year, China's imported polysilicon has exceeded 40,000 tons, and these low-priced dumping products have made domestic companies feel very pressured in terms of costs and so on."
SMEs have stopped production
From January to June 2012, domestic polysilicon prices fell by more than 25%. It is said that from the national situation, 43 polycrystalline silicon companies have already put into operation, and only 7 companies are still starting production. The rest of the companies have closed their production lines, and the suspended production rate has reached 80%.
In addition to the impact of imports of low-cost polysilicon, the suspension of production of small and medium-sized companies is related to their own situation.
The first is the sharp drop in the price of polysilicon.
Since 2006, polysilicon prices have been rising and falling like roller coasters.
First, it hit a high of 400 U.S. dollars per kilogram from 2008, and fell sharply in the next 2-3 years. The most recent decline started from a year and a half ago: Around March 2011, the price of the product was between US$70 and US$80 per kg. Today’s price has dropped to US$20-22 per kg. Polysilicon companies have had a catastrophic effect.
Apart from a few polysilicon companies in China, such as Daquan, Luoyang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng, and LDK Solar, it is estimated that few companies can achieve low energy consumption and realize breakeven.
This also shows that most domestic small and medium-sized polysilicon enterprises can hardly withstand the test of ultra-high technology and ultra-low energy consumption. This is also related to the fact that many investors had blindly involved in the polysilicon industry.
Second, it is also a fact that it is difficult for small and medium-sized companies to compete with large companies.
According to the reporter's understanding, the current price of polysilicon has fallen sharply, in addition to the overcapacity of photovoltaic modules (excessive components - low price competition for component prices - prices of upstream polysilicon have to be lowered), and some large polysilicon companies are also selling themselves.
A number of polysilicon companies have signed contracts with downstream customers for hundreds of millions of dollars and deadlines up to 2018.
Thus, in the current sluggish market, it is possible for both parties to engage in an operation that will continue to perform at a slightly higher price (eg, 35 to 40 US dollars/kg), accompanied by some 15 to 25 US$/kg. Spot low price polysilicon, so that the total purchase cost of customers such as downstream silicon and components is still low.
Some small and medium-sized polysilicon companies, which mainly focus on spot sales, must follow the spot market price quotations and have to sell at a lower price. They eventually have to choose to stop production due to the breakdown of their cash flow or capital chain.
The macro overcapacity will be reviewed three years later. What are the status of these nine industries? After a multi-day investigation and interview, the reporter found that from 2009 to 2012, the irrational expansion of production capacity in these nine industries did not shrink due to policy restrictions, and some industries were extremely aggressive in their expansion. Therefore, the survival status of the nine major industries is not satisfactory. Among them, the entire steel and electrolytic aluminum industry suffers losses; the production capacity of cement, flat glass, and wind power equipment is severely oversupplied; small and medium-sized polysilicon companies have ceased production, and shipbuilding companies have “winteredâ€.
Under the policy restrictions, what are the driving forces for overcapacity in these industries, reflecting the structural contradictions? The newspaper today launched the second survey series on “overcapacity in the nine industries†to interpret the current status of the polysilicon and fan equipment industry.
At the end of last year, the four largest polysilicon companies in China, including Luoyang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng, Sichuan Daquan, and LDK, noted that although polysilicon prices at home and abroad are declining, the import prices of polysilicon products from South Korea and the United States have been low. Quotes from Chinese counterparts.
“In this case, several of our big companies have to think of ways to go so that all Chinese companies will close down.†Mr. Yu’s internal management of the above-mentioned polysilicon company disclosed to the “First Financial Daily†reporter that there were four After negotiating and collecting materials, the company submitted to the Ministry of Commerce in the first half of this year and hoped that the government could conduct anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against these overseas companies.
Polysilicon production capacity at home and abroad has been surplus, and now imported ultra-low-cost polysilicon products have hit the domestic market. It is estimated that about 80% of domestic polysilicon companies have stopped production.
Serious excess
According to data from the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, the global polysilicon production in 2011 was 240,000 tons. According to relevant data, China's polysilicon production was about 83,000 tons, and China's imports of solar-grade polysilicon were about 63,000 tons, which together add up to an estimated 146,000 tons of total supply. However, the total world demand was only 140,000 tons, and the number of polysilicon from Chinese local manufacturers and overseas importers has exceeded the total demand of the world.
Polysilicon is an important raw material for the manufacture of crystalline silicon solar cells, and it is also a very intensive part of technology and investment. As far back as 2007, the global polysilicon production was dominated by large companies such as Germany, the United States, and South Korea, because at the time several major companies in the world were reluctant to transfer the technology to improve Siemens.
At the same time, the European photovoltaic industry, dominated by Germany, has received strong support from the government, which has led to a surge in battery demand. This has also caused the supply of polysilicon products to fall short of demand. Many large Chinese companies have also been involved.
At that time, after setting aside billions or even billions of dollars in funds to establish production facilities and introduce high-tech talent, individual companies including Jiangsu Zhongneng and Daquan polysilicon quickly entered the industry, and China's polysilicon production has also been greatly improved.
According to the data obtained by a reporter from a photovoltaic company, in 2008, the total domestic polysilicon output was only about 4,600 tons, but the output from 2009 to 2011 increased to 20,000 tons, 45,000 tons and 82,000 tons, 2012. The output of the first four months reached 24,300 tons.
At the same time, a large number of overseas low-cost polysilicon hit the domestic market.
In 2008, the imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea were 5,371 tons and 1,932 tons respectively. However, by 2011, the imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea respectively exceeded 17,000 tons and 21,000 tons, of which Korea’s market share in China rose from about 10%. To 15%. After accumulating data in recent years, the reporter found that China (polysilicon production) accounted for 52% of domestic demand, and Korea and the United States accounted for 13% and 16% of imports, respectively. Visible, South Korea's polysilicon has reached nearly 30% of the domestic market demand.
Feng Dezhi, general manager of Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon, also admitted that foreign imports of polysilicon had a great impact on Chinese companies. “Low-cost dumping of European and American companies, local trade barriers, and unreasonable trade protection are all harmful to Chinese companies. From January to May this year, China's imported polysilicon has exceeded 40,000 tons, and these low-priced dumping products have made domestic companies feel very pressured in terms of costs and so on."
SMEs have stopped production
From January to June 2012, domestic polysilicon prices fell by more than 25%. It is said that from the national situation, 43 polycrystalline silicon companies have already put into operation, and only 7 companies are still starting production. The rest of the companies have closed their production lines, and the suspended production rate has reached 80%.
In addition to the impact of imports of low-cost polysilicon, the suspension of production of small and medium-sized companies is related to their own situation.
The first is the sharp drop in the price of polysilicon.
Since 2006, polysilicon prices have been rising and falling like roller coasters.
First, it hit a high of 400 U.S. dollars per kilogram from 2008, and fell sharply in the next 2-3 years. The most recent decline started from a year and a half ago: Around March 2011, the price of the product was between US$70 and US$80 per kg. Today’s price has dropped to US$20-22 per kg. Polysilicon companies have had a catastrophic effect.
Apart from a few polysilicon companies in China, such as Daquan, Luoyang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng, and LDK Solar, it is estimated that few companies can achieve low energy consumption and realize breakeven.
This also shows that most domestic small and medium-sized polysilicon enterprises can hardly withstand the test of ultra-high technology and ultra-low energy consumption. This is also related to the fact that many investors had blindly involved in the polysilicon industry.
Second, it is also a fact that it is difficult for small and medium-sized companies to compete with large companies.
According to the reporter's understanding, the current price of polysilicon has fallen sharply, in addition to the overcapacity of photovoltaic modules (excessive components - low price competition for component prices - prices of upstream polysilicon have to be lowered), and some large polysilicon companies are also selling themselves.
A number of polysilicon companies have signed contracts with downstream customers for hundreds of millions of dollars and deadlines up to 2018.
Thus, in the current sluggish market, it is possible for both parties to engage in an operation that will continue to perform at a slightly higher price (eg, 35 to 40 US dollars/kg), accompanied by some 15 to 25 US$/kg. Spot low price polysilicon, so that the total purchase cost of customers such as downstream silicon and components is still low.
Some small and medium-sized polysilicon companies, which mainly focus on spot sales, must follow the spot market price quotations and have to sell at a lower price. They eventually have to choose to stop production due to the breakdown of their cash flow or capital chain.
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